IDC’s top 10 predictions for the 2019 worldwide connected vehicle market were developed with input from technology and product vendors, service providers, and technology buyers in the automotive, IT, and government segments as well as from IDC’s connected vehicle analysts. These predictions focus on providing guidance on key connected vehicle trends that impact the automotive service value chain, from vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) and tier 1 suppliers to wireless network operators and state and local governments.
IDC defines the connected vehicle market, at its broadest, as any vehicle and related transportation infrastructure that utilizes the internet, Internet of Things (IoT), and 3rd Platform technologies (mobile technologies, social networking, cloud services, and big data and analytics) for communication. This communication includes the distribution of data across endpoints such as vehicle occupants, manufacturers and suppliers, government organizations, and third-party application providers that utilize the data to develop new and enhanced products and services. Examples of services created with this data include new approaches to maintain vehicle safety, more precise navigation and routing information, and the development of vehicle intelligent or smart assistants.
Our predictions aim to highlight the advances and innovations enabled or supported by connected vehicle over the next five years. The following is the list of the top 10 areas of impact predicted for technology buyers in the connected vehicle space:
- Prediction 1: By 2024, 10% of all rides completed via ride-sharing platforms in major cities will be provided by automated vehicles.
- Prediction 2: By 2020, vehicle manufacturers operating Levels 4 and 5 autonomy fleets will require 50MB of cellular data per hour for safe vehicle operation and to ensure a consistent level of rider satisfaction.
- Prediction 3: By 2023, 35% of large transit authorities will have integrated with transportation network companies to improve and expand passenger services and to reduce transit agency inefficiencies and service gaps.
- Prediction 4: The average cost of the additional hardware required to enable Level 4 autonomy will drop from $12,000 per vehicle in 2020 to $8,000 per vehicle in 2023.
- Prediction 5: By 2022, 5% of urban households worldwide will have reduced car ownership by at least one vehicle, replacing dedicated vehicle usage with mobility-as-a-service and public transport options.
- Prediction 6: Because of increases in driver assistance and workload data sharing via cloud platforms, 20% of OEMs implementing data management and monetization strategies will increase their market share by 2023.
- Prediction 7: By 2021, 60% of tier 1 suppliers will leverage real-time data across the value chain and will have increased their focus on new product collaboration with OEMs to reduce time to market by 35%.
- Prediction 8: By 2024, 20% of global autonomous fleet owners will network vehicle digital twins into their ecosystems to ensure safe city and town operation while achieving a 5% cost-of-quality reduction.
- Prediction 9: Because of rising direct and indirect vehicle ownership costs, by 2022, personal urban miles driven will have contracted by 15% and urban car sales will have fallen.
- Prediction 10: By 2021, 20% of major cities will have begun implementations to support automated vehicles, leading to increased live AV pilots, faster transit innovations, and improved road safety.
This IDC study provides our top 10 predictions for the worldwide connected vehicle market for 2019. These predictions reflect IDC’s vision for the 10 most important trends in this market over the next 60 months (through 2024). Technology buyers across automotive manufacturers, tiered suppliers, mobile network operators, and fleet owners should use this IDC FutureScape to help inform their purchasing decisions over the next three to five years.
In 2018, we saw an acceleration of the impacts of digital transformation on the automotive industry and ecosystem. Changes such as growth of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) providers like Uber and Lyft and the preproduction testing of automated vehicles are forcing technology buyers to broaden the scope of services and technology they need to understand and adopt. This frequency of change will only accelerate, and ecosystem participants unwilling or unable to adapt may be disrupted.
Learn more about the 2019 Connected Vehicle Predictions
For context around these predictions, including the IT impact and guidance on how to integrate each prediction in the digital strategy of the enterprise, view the IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2019 Predictions web conference on-demand.
Jeffrey Hojlo, Program Director, IDC Manufacturing Insights